Dreaming of Cloud

Endorsements, Electability and Obama, Oh My!

Today, I’ve read the words of several Clinton supporters opining that WV ‘hurt’ Obama, so he had to scramble fast to divert attention with the fresh endorsement of John Edwards to capture the top spot in the evening news. That’s one opinion; I have my own.

Superdelegates and Edwards ” Drunkard’s Lamppost
… up at least two thirds of Edwards’s delegates in order to seal the nomination. … rules is that Edwards can either instruct his delegates to vote for another …

Edwards Iowa Delegates to Stay Put - Edwards Bloggers Google Groups
Message from discussion Edwards Iowa Delegates to Stay Put … at the Jan 3 caucuses, each of our Edwards delegates to the next …

Michigan For Edwards
… camp to run a united Obama-Edwards delegate slate, but that’ll be decided later … delegates in the three West Michigan districts is really an “Edwards delegate” …

Fair Media Now!
… chatter, guess who’s campaign is the most active in getting Edwards delegates. Hillary. … delegates pledged to John Edwards; his estimated 14 statewide …

After the close result in IN and the big win in NC, a number of the endorsees privately notified Obama they were ready to endorse. That would explain why he’s been more casual in his campaigning since, speaking in non-primary states instead of aggressively pursuing them in order, like he did for the many previous long months of the primary season.

If I’m correct, he’s merely choreographing the timing of endorsements from superdelegates and advocacy organizations to control the primary narrative the rest of the way. Today, in addition to Edwards’ endorsement (which might yield him most or all of Edwards’ remaining 19 pledged delegates), three former members of the SEC (supers all), several other supers, and NARAL endorsed him too. (The latter brought a swift rebuke from the head of Emily’s List and other Clinton supporters have asked ‘why the bum’s rush to endorse now?)

I say, why not now? The suggestion that male candidates never get pressured to withdraw overlooks the salient point that no primary season has gone to this many states in 40 years, so precedents are few and far between. And previous to 1968 is not relevant since the primary reforms of 1972 ended the smoke-filled backroom era of deciding close contests. In reality, this is the longest primary season in US history in actual time from NH to WV, so there simply are no real precedents to fall back on.

Digg - Obama picks up most of Edwards‘ delegates
Half the 14 delegates allocated to John Edwards… Half the 14 delegates allocated to John Edwards on the basis of caucus night …

Yet, as always, comments threads are full of the ongoing claim that Obama’s unelectable, because Clinton does a better job attracting uneducated white working class voters.

Oh really?

If you go check the latest state polls at pollster.com, or fivethirtyeight.com or even electoral-vote.com, you’ll see that the Appalachia states that matter (PA, OH) are already showing Obama with a nice lead over McCain in PA and he’s only 2% behind in OH.

WV? Not a chance. But around the country, he’s even looking competitive in AK, MT, NE, CO, NV, VA, ND, NC and SC, all states that are typically won by the GOP.

Obama polls above 50% in VT, RI, MA, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, IL, MN, CA, OR, WA, and HI (196 electoral votes), He’s ahead a few points in ME, PA, IA, CO (41 electoral votes). He’s 1 pt behind in NM, MI, OH, FL (69 electoral votes). So that’s 316 electoral votes where he’s leading or behind by 1 point !

Add AK, NV, MT, NE, ND, MO, VA, NC and SC, where he’s currently 2-6 pts behind McCain, and that’s another 66 electoral votes where he’s competitive, for 382 electoral votes if he won them all.

So can he win? It depends.

If only he knew how to campaign well, how to raise lots of money, and how to conduct a good GOTV ground operation, and voters were dissatisfied with the GOP agenda, he could win.

Related posts: Double melt pizza, Say what you need to say, Abigail adams smallpox, Parvathy omanakuttam, Ebizauctions

This entry was posted on Thursday, May 15th, 2008 at 6:45 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.